Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - Dayton Business Journal:

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The pace of private-sector job losses will slow over the next few but state and local government layoffs are the Business Forecasting Center at the said in its latest California and Metro Forecast released The forecastsaid California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percentf early next year, and will remain in double-digits until the end of 2011. The cente produces quarterly economic forecasts of the United States, California and nine metrlo areas, from Sacramento to Fresno and the San Francisci Bay Area. In the Sacrament o area, unemployment will rise from 11.1 percent this year to peak at 11.4 percent next year, before dipping to 10.2 percent in 2011, the reporr said.
Unemployment is expected to reach 9.2 percen in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecast to rebound in the third quarter of next when job growth will improveto 0.8 percent. A “strong reboun d is expected to take placd in professionaland business, and educational and health servicees sectors,” the report said of “Job growth is expected to have its firs positive full year at 2.0 percent in 2011.” Sacramento’s real personal meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percentf next year.
San Jose and San Franciscol will be the first metrlo areas in Northern California to return totheie pre-recession employment levels, in the seconfd and third quarters of 2012, respectively, the studhy said. Sacramento and Merced will be among the last nortnh state metro areas to regainpeak employment, in fourth-quarterf 2013. Vallejo is last, with a retur expected in the second quarterof 2014. The Central Valleg will be hard hit by the combinationb of recent state tax increasesx and massive expectedbudget cuts, the Business Forecastintg Center said.
“The state budge t crisis is a dangerous aftershocik to a region still reeling from the foreclosure Jeff Michael, director of the Businessd Forecasting Center, said in a news The Central Valley is an economic disastedr area, but most of its “economi c shocks are cyclical in nature rathere than permanent changes such as closesd military bases,” the news release • Construction continues to lead job losses in percentagw terms, declining another 15 percent to 110,000 in 2009. • Manufacturing will lead the declinewin 2009, losing 135,000 jobs this • Retail sales will not return to their 2007 level untill 2011. • New car and truck sales will fallbeloww 1.
06 million in 2009, afterr exceeding 2 million for most of the decade. Salese will gradually increase as theeconomy recovers, reaching 1.46 milliom next year, and 1.73 million in 2011. Housing starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,00o0 units, more than 80 percenty below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housing startse will be back to 100,000 units in 2011, and exceerd 150,000 by 2013. • Health care is the only sectoer that will not shrinkthis year. The gain of 13,000p health care jobs, or 0.9 percent, is the slowestt growth this decade. • Personal income declines 0.8 percenf in 2009. • Nonfarm payrolls will declinedby 1,020,000 jobs statewide during the two-yearf recession.
• The California economy will finally hit botto in the fourth quarterd ofthis year, and will begihn a slow, multi-year recovery. It will be 2013 beforse many key economic indicators such as unemployment return tohealthy • The state’s recession should end in the last quarted of this year, but the job market will remain weak througbh most of next year.