Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - New Mexico Business Weekly:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wrighgt State and author of the said unemployment increases will continue at thei r accelerated pace into the third quarter of this The Dayton MetropolitanStatistical Area, whicg includes Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preble is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the thirdd quarter. That would drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the first quarter of the year, a 2 percent The hardest-hit area is one the Daytonm area has longrelied on, “Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynor Forecasts from the report show employment in the sectof falling from 42,300 in the first quarter of this year to 36,100 by the third quarter, a nearly 15 percentt drop.
Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the firsrt quarter, a 2 percent Service employment, which includesa financial service, business utilities and leisure service, is projected to decrease to 324,20p by the third down from 326,700 in the first a nearly 1 percent decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasanyt time forthe region,” Traynoer said.
Construction employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonalo employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firs quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs feweer than the same time perio d last year. One area of employmeny that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healthu care. In fact, Traynor said he expecta health care to add some jobs by thethird quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the firsgt quarter. He said the rate of decline in gross domestid productwill slow, but remain negativ e through the third quarter and maybe into the fourthb quarter of this year.
Even when GDP does becom positive again, it will take some time for employment to pick up becausw it is a laggin indicator ofeconomic recovery. Traynor said there is a greay deal of uncertainty still on the national as businesses try to determine the impact ofgovernment actions. Traynorf said the problem of high unemployment is not going awayanytimes soon. “This is something we’re going to be living with for quitda while, well into next year,” he